Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Frenzy: 'Unhinged Times'

The U.S. gaming community has been on an emotional rollercoaster this week, starting with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, which was quickly overshadowed by the hefty $450 price tag and the $80 cost for Mario Kart Tour. The excitement turned to confusion and concern when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the sweeping tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on global trade.

We've already explored the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential industry-wide impact of these new tariffs. However, the burning question remains: what will Nintendo do? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even more expensive once pre-orders open?

Typically, to answer such questions, I consult with a panel of expert industry analysts who, while not able to predict the future, usually provide well-informed predictions based on evidence and data. This week alone, I've written about their insights twice. However, this time, every analyst I spoke with was stumped. Their responses were filled with guesses and caveats, emphasizing the unprecedented chaos of the current situation. No one can accurately predict the actions of Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or any other stakeholders in the near future.

With that in mind, here's a summary of what the analysts had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts were divided. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after announcing them, but the delay changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo will likely run simulations and announce price hikes for the system, games, and accessories. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't," he said. He also questioned Nintendo's timing, suggesting they should have waited for the U.S. to resolve the tariffs before setting prices.

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment of unpredictability but leaned towards an increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing businesses to reevaluate their pricing strategies. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he stated. Piscatella also highlighted the potential for the U.S. to join other regions with historically higher game prices due to these tariffs.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicted an increase in hardware prices but suggested that software prices might not be affected as much due to the rise of digital distribution. "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins. In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices," he explained.

Holding the Line

On the other hand, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes that Nintendo will try to avoid increasing the price of the Switch 2. He argued that the $449.99 price already accounted for potential tariff volatility. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," he said. However, he acknowledged that the unpredictable nature of these tariffs could force Nintendo to reassess if the trade situation worsens.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agreed, noting that Nintendo risks consumer backlash if it raises prices further. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price," he said. He suggested that Nintendo might hold off on changing the price until at least 2026, but the delay in pre-orders indicates the company is hoping for a resolution in the coming weeks.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicted higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments on Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions of games in certain markets, suggesting that similar plans for the U.S. were disrupted by the tariff situation. Elliott painted a grim picture of the broader impact on the games industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade," he said, criticizing the tariffs for increasing costs during a time of economic strain.

Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery

91 Images

Elliott's analysis also touched on the broader economic implications of the tariffs, emphasizing that they go against core principles of international trade theory. He concluded by describing the current situation as "unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)," highlighting the detrimental impact on consumers and the economy.